Valid 2026-10-29 12:00 UTC – 2026-11-04 12:00 UTC

A high amplitude trough will remain over the Pacific Northwest through at least Day 5/Saturday, leaving much of the western third of the CONUS under increased cloud cover, below normal temperatures, and periodic precipitation. The extended forecast period begins on Day 3/Thursday with nearly zonal flow atop much of the eastern half of the CONUS as the upper-level jet flows over the international border with Canada, promoting above normal temperatures from the Great Plains eastward. As the forecast progresses into Day 4/Friday, a subtle and transient ridge builds over portions of the Plains and South while a shortwave trough is expected to pass through the Southwest. The aforementioned resident trough over the West will begin to strengthen and nudge eastward on Day 6/Sunday, dragging cooler-than-normal temperatures and another round of widespread precipitation across much of the CONUS early next week. This will drop ERCs across the board even lower headed into next week. Areas with the driest antecedent conditions (generally over the lower MS River corridor), are anticipated to receive beneficial precipitation. Thus, any threat of significant fire weather remains low and will trend even lower by next week.

Stearns · 10/27/2026