969 FNUS28 KWNS 222203 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... An embedded upper short wave and attendant plume of mid/upper level sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by Day 3/Wednesday, bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region. Another embedded short wave translates eastward into the Interior West by Day 4/Thursday maintaining dry thunderstorm potential across CO Plateau and Four Corners. An amplifying wave pattern emerges late in the week with strong and dry southwest flow posing a broad and considerable fire weather concerns for the eastern Great Basin and much of the Southwest Days 5-6/Friday-Saturday. Troughing across the West with a building ridge over the eastern U.S. will likely sustain fire weather concerns for much of the Southwest through early next week under enhanced southwest flow and dry conditions. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... An approaching short wave impulse and accompanying mid-level Pacific moisture plume will likely bring a broad area of isolated high-based convection to the Southwest, centered around the Four Corners region on Day 3/Wednesday. Another upper-level wave edges towards the Northern Rockies in Day 4/Thursday, aiding in isolated thunderstorm development across the greater Four Corners region. New ignitions are possible with receptive fuels in place and limited surface precipitation attributed to a dry, sub-cloud layer supportive of evaporation. Additionally, drier southwest flow, west of the deeper Pacific moisture, will yield a fire weather threat to the eastern Great Basin both Wednesday and Thursday. A 40% critical probability area was added to eastern NV and west-central UT in addition to general expansion of the 10% isolated dry thunderstorm probability areas. ...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday... A unseasonable strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the Interior West late this week as an upper trough amplifies across the Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric moisture across the Southwest. Latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph developing under the stronger jet across the southern Great Basin into northern AZ on Day 5/Friday, shifting into southeastern UT and the CO Western Slope by Saturday. Primary changes for this outlook were the inclusion of 70% critical probability areas for both Friday and Saturday as confidence continues to increase in a appreciable wind event, potentially impacting nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and Thursday. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather threat across the CO Plateau, Four Corners and parts of the Southwest through early next week. As such, 40% critical probabilities have been added for Day 8/Monday given increasing forecast confidence in longer term ensemble guidance. Fuels are expected to remain quite receptive through early next week with only some reprieve in isolated areas that receive appreciable rainfall in the days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday time frame. ..Williams.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$