070 FNUS22 KWNS 230614 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An embedded upper-level short wave trough and attendant plume of mid/upper level sub-tropical moisture moves into the Southwest by Day 2/Wednesday, bringing a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region. Early in the day, convection will likely be ongoing over portions of southwest UT before becoming more widespread to include much of the larger Isolated Dry Thunder area as daytime heating continues. The escalating precipitable water values associated with this increasingly progressive moisture plume will be watched closely with future forecast issuances given their potential to dampen dry thunderstorm potential. However, given the widespread critically dry fuels, preceding hot and dry surface conditions before convection starts and the dry sub-cloud layer, even if modeled precipitation amounts trend upward, a fire weather threat will still exist from lightning ignitions across this region. Wetter storms working to conceal potential ignitions followed by the hot, dry, and very windy pattern change on the horizon later this week for this region could become particularly concerning given the propensity for lightning holdovers. The Elevated wind/RH area over eastern NV was also slightly adjusted commensurate with the latest forecast models depicting a corridor of 10-20 mph sustained south to southwesterly winds over this portion of the western Great Basin where hot and dry (5-15%) conditions will exist through the afternoon. ..Stearns.. 06/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$