742 FNUS21 KWNS 231637 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH... No changes were needed to the existing fire weather outlook as the forecast remains on track. Poor RH recoveries were noted across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. A swath of very low RH values of 10% or less currently stretches from the eastern Great Basin into the Four Corners region. West winds of up to 20 mph under a building upper ridge will develop across northern AZ and southern UT by mid afternoon resulting in Critical fire weather conditions for the area amid very dry fuels. ...Inland Southern California... Mid and upper-level moisture streaming northward into southern CA combined with daytime heating and instability will bring isolated convection to inland/desert portions of southern CA this afternoon and this evening. A few dry lightning strikes with high based thunderstorms are expected but coverage should be limited, with dry thunderstorm highlights withheld for this outlook. ..Williams.. 06/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest, southern Great Basin and CO Plateau today. Hot temperatures combined with dry air will drop RHs to 5-15% during peak heating across this region this afternoon. This well-mixed boundary layer will transport the aforementioned flow to the surface, leading to widespread west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph over the Elevated area. To capture the areal extent of this activity as indicated in the latest forecast guidance, slight expansions were made to include additional portions of central NV and southwestern WY. A corridor of enhanced westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as 10% will yield a period of critical fire weather conditions for parts of northern AZ into southern UT. Persistently poor RH nighttime recoveries will further exacerbate already very dry fuels and extend burn periods well into the overnight hours. While not likely, a thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out near Flagstaff, AZ. If any such storm does form, it will likely provide more potential for wind than rain given the high cloud bases, limited precipitable water, and very hot and dry surface conditions in this area. Greater potential for thunderstorm activity will exist on Day 2/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$