096 
ACUS48 KWNS 230848
SWOD48
SPC AC 230847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D5/Saturday - Northern Plains...
A strong mid-level trough will move into the Northwest on Saturday with strong mid-level flow extending around the base of this trough. The leading edge of this stronger mid-level flow will emerge over the northern Plains on Saturday with a lee cyclone forecast near the MT/SD/WY border. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Strong to severe storms appear likely during the afternoon and evening as the lead shortwave trough emerges and the low-level jet strengthens. There is still some uncertainty with the location/timing of the lead shortwave trough which may require some shifting of the probabilities at a later time. However, confidence in severe weather in the general region is high enough to add 15 percent probabilities.


...D6/Sunday - Northern Plains Vicinity...
On Sunday, as the primary jet streak emerges across the northern Plains, severe weather will also be possible across North Dakota and vicinity. However, the evolution of the upper trough/jet streak is a bit more uncertain and therefore, the area with this greater concern is less clear. Eventual severe weather probabilities seem likely, but will not be added until guidance comes into better agreement regarding the upper-level pattern. 


...D7/Monday - Upper Midwest...
As the mid-level trough shifts east on Monday, the stronger mid-level flow may overspread an unstable warm sector across parts of the Upper Midwest. Considerable uncertainty regarding the upper trough evolution and position of the surface features preclude inclusion of probabilities at this time. 

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026