Valid 2026-10-30 12:00 UTC – 2026-11-04 12:00 UTC

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low through Day 6/Sunday. Periods of thunderstorms are possible from the southern/central Plains to the Lower OH and TN Valleys during this time as a weak midlevel shortwave trough slowly migrates east within a modest deep-layer flow regime.

Medium-range forecast guidance suggests a deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will emerge from the western U.S. into the Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow via deepening surface cyclogenesis will foster northward transport of rich Gulf moisture ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Despite increasing moisture, current forecast guidance maintains only modest instability due to weak lapse rates and possible inhibition around 850-700 mb. This general pattern could support severe thunderstorms depending on the evolution of the warm sector. However, uncertainty is high due to large spread among forecast guidance in the placement and timing of the upper trough. Trends will be monitored for increasing severe potential across the south-central U.S. early next week.

Leitman · 10/27/2026