885 ACUS03 KWNS 230731 SWODY3 SPC AC 230730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the central/northern High Plains with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind, and across portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the Ozarks on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Thursday with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. The two features of interest will move from the northern Great Basin to Wyoming with the second shortwave trough moving from the Four Corners into the central/southern Plains. At the surface, a lee cyclone is expected to develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity with a frontal zone extending eastward toward the Ozarks. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Moderate instability will develop across eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado amid persistent upslope flow. As mid-level flow strengthens to 35 to 40 knots and mid-level forcing overspreads the Plains, expect supercells to develop across eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado. These storms will have a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks... A mid-level shortwave trough should result in sufficient upper-level support for storm development along the frontal zone. Moderate to strong instability is expected to overlap the same region with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow and a moderate low-level jet. Some storm activity may be ongoing with this shortwave trough on Thursday morning. Therefore, the greatest storm threat should be on the south/southwest extent of this morning activity. The environment will support supercells capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps even some tornadoes. The extent of the tornado threat will depend on how strong the surface reflection associated with this feature may be. A solution such as the NAM has a much stronger surface low and low-level jet response, which would enhance the tornado threat along this frontal zone. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2026 $$