Valid 2026-10-27 20:00 UTC – 2026-10-28 12:00 UTC

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST TEXAS

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a small part of southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas.

20Z Update

Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus and an initial attempt at convective initiation over Far West Texas, although storm tops and lightning activity have decreased since the initial upward pulse. Still, the expectation is for isolated thunderstorms to develop across portions of West Texas into far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon into the evening. Given steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts, some supercell thunderstorm potential exists. Though storm coverage is anticipated to remain low, recent forecast guidance and mesoanalysis data indicate the environment may be supportive of large hail up to 2.5" in diameter. For short term details, see MCD #2412

While minor adjustments to the Marginal Risk area have been made to account for recent trends, the primary change is to introduce a CIG 1 area for hail to reflect the potential for very large hail.

Halbert-K · 10/27/2026

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Issued 1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Southeast NM/Far West TX

Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and southeast NM. The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer. As the boundary layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.