364 ACUS01 KWNS 231647 SWODY1 SPC AC 231645 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs (14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this late-day/evening redevelopment scenario. Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least isolated convective development across southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still occur with any sustained supercell. ...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina... Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will also develop eastward across these areas through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or two may also occur. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas. Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota. Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized. ...Coastal Southeast... Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern Florida. ..Guyer/Moore.. 06/23/2026 $$